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Gene Clemons TE Confidential: Vikings

Gene Clemons, FBGP Analyst
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Our 4th ranked unit in our Tight End Confidential series boast a lot of young talent at the position. The Minnesota Vikings have players who can be game changers in the run and pass game, especially with a conservative head coach and a lights out defense.

Kyle Rudolph is a very talented tight end from Notre Dame who was slowed in previous seasons by injury. Last season was his first full season since 2012 and he responded with 49 receptions for 495 yards and five touchdowns, in an extremely conservative offense. As head coach Mike Zimmer becomes more secure with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, hopefully the defensive-minded coach will loosen the reigns on Bridgewater. That will result in an even better season for Rudolph, who at 26 years old, is just entering into the prime seasons of his career. Rudolph is one of the rare starting tight ends who is effective as a blocker and pass receiver, which is why he is so dangerous in the play-action passing game. Rudolph has Gronkowski-like ability, but has not had the opportunity to have the type of production that warrants that comparison.

Rudolph is backed up by another talented, and complete tight end, in Rhett Ellison. At 27 years old, Ellison and Rudolph have had the opportunity to grow together. They both have been developed with the idea of being intricate parts of the Vikings offense, which makes them dangerous in two tight formations. Ellison make be even a little more bare knuckles than Rudolph. That will need to be the case when they are asked to stay in and help an offensive line that struggled in pass protection. Ellison is just as valuable as Rudolph because he possesses starting ability.

The third end in this group is MyCole Pruitt. At 6’2” 250, Pruitt is a guy who brings a different dynamic to the table. He has the ideal size and athleticism of an H-back. He can line up in the backfield and split out wide. While his blocking still needs to improve to NFL caliber, it isn’t horrible. Pruitt has really good hands and can be a change of pace guy at the position and helps the Vikings stretch the field down the middle even more.

The three guys make this group complete and the offense makes it very hard to gameplan for them. The result is a really valuable unit to an offense that will need a counter to the run game led by Adrian Peterson. That’s what makes them so important and really high on this list

Questions? Comments?

Tweet: @geneclemons

Email: gclemons@footballgameplan.com

Top NFL QBs with 5 or Less Years of Experience

Chris James, FBGP Analyst
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Marcus Mariota (8th):

The ability to extend plays is becoming more important in a league that has elite pass rushing talent. Mariota has elite level speed for the position with the size to complement it. He’s an intriguing prospect since he’s extremely accurate while lacking high level anticipation. This is likely the result of wide open receiving targets during his collegiate career. Marcus had some injury issues in 2015 that should be buoyed by additions to the backfield (Murray, Henry) and the OL (Conklin).

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Teddy Bridgewater (7th):

A great freshmen campaign was followed up by a pedestrian sophomore year. Bridgewater was my top QB in the 2014 class and things point to him being a successful selection. The Vikings had success in a numerically regressed 2nd season for Bridgewater. I’m on record saying that this is the proper way to bring along ANY young QB for optimum success. Limit their chances for error and allow them to make plays when necessary; the Seahawks took a similar approach with Wilson on the way to a Super bowl. Let’s see what the result is for Bridgewater in 2016.

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Blake Bortles (6th):

The 2014 & 2015 campaigns for Blake Bortles couldn’t have been more different for judging his future success. In 2014 there were multiple games that made you wonder if he would be a bust. He missed simple throws, failed in his progressions, and CONSTANTLY starred down receivers. To his credit (and the coaching staff’s) Bortles learned from his failures to have a quality 2015 season. Blake looked like the best young QB in the league in a few games this season, but he still has a way to go. I had a 3rd round grade on Bortles as I sighted the issues displayed in 2014. The Jags proved equipped to handle his shortcomings and mold him into a franchise caliber player in year two.

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Jameis Winston (5th):

The #1 pick is a pressure filled selection especially when you’re the guy under center. You have the pressure of a franchise on your shoulders in a league that has become more pass happy. Winston is more of a traditional QB than our #8 QB (Mariota) in the sense that he’s seen as a pocket passer. This is interesting when you consider that Winston rushed for 3 TDs in 2015. He’s in for a great 2016 campaign as he continues to gain comfort with former OC, and now HC, Dirk Koetter.

 

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Derek Carr (4th):

The 2014 draft class produced quality talent and none has been more consistent than Carr. Carr was my #3 QB for that class with a late day one projection. So far in the NFL all he’s done is proven to be the most NFL ready QB entering the league that season. He still makes mistakes, none bigger than forcing passes up the seam. Derek Carr was helped immensely by the additions of a vet like Crabtree and a rookie in Amari Cooper. His future looks bright as he’s ahead of the curve compared to his contemporaries from that class.

 

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Andrew Luck (3rd):

The gap between #3 & #4 is massive especially when compared to the gap between #2 & #3. In 2012 the Colts chose to go with a future franchise QB over a guy that is arguably the GOAT. The move actually seems to have paid off for both QBs involved as Luck hasn’t disappointed (at least not much). He’s gone to the playoffs in each of his first 3 seasons and gotten a round further each season. Luck came into the NFL garnering the most adoration I’ve ever seen from analysts and talking heads; I had Luck as my #1 QB for the 2012 draft. The physical tools and the production have matched up in a lot of respects. The area of concern that I still have was highlighted during his time on Gruden’s QB camp. The now infamous “Spider 2 Y Banana” is something that was a staple of the Stanford offense. One of the issues that Luck exhibited was an affinity for trying to drive the ball into the TE on the corner which resulted in a few TOs. Since entering the NFL, Andrew Luck has been in the top 3 in TOs in every season except 2015. He led the NFL in TOs at the time of the injury that cut his 2015 season short. Although the top guy for some, I can’t make a guy that doesn’t take care of the ball my top QB when offered an alternative.

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Cam Newton (2nd):

Cam Newton entered the league in 2011 and made a splash with back to back 400+ yard games. His team has made multiple playoff appearances and Newton has played well in big games. The 2015 season was his coming out party on the way to a 15-1 record, MVP, and Super bowl appearance. He did more with less (on offense) in 2015 than any other QB in any season on this list. Newton did show that he has areas of improvement that reared their ugly head in SB50. He still doesn’t drive off his back foot which allows the ball to sail especially on out breaking routes; Cam will be an unsolvable problem once he develops more consistency in his lower body mechanics.

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Russell Wilson (1st):

The top QB with 5 or less years of experience in the NFL is Russell Wilson…period! Okay, let me explain why this guy is the top QB for this analysis. I’ll start with a conversation I had with a guy before the 2015 season about Luck & Wilson; the guy said that Luck was better because of his stats and what he’s asked to do. My retort was simple…there is no other young QB I would rather have in winning time. Period! Winning time (for me) is 3rd down & long, 4th down, the last 2 minutes of a game, or when trailing by double digits. He’s not the biggest, fastest, strongest, etc. from a physical standpoint but he’s the closest thing to Tom Brady or Joe Montana that we have in this league during winning time.

Questions? Comments?

Tweet: @cjflorida9

Email: cjames@footballgameplan.com

Gene Clemons TE Confidential: Cowboys

Gene Clemons, FBGP Analyst
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As we move into the top five of our Tight End Confidential series, we find “America’s Team”, the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys have a long history of success from the tight end position. Mike Ditka, Billy Joe Dupree, Doug Cosbie, and Jay Novacek, all had outstanding times with the star on their helmet. But when it’s all said and done, the greatest tight end in Cowboys history will be former University of Tennessee standout, Jason Witten. The 34-year-old Witten is entering his 14th season in Dallas and shows no signs of stopping. He has been the most durable tight end in the league as he has started all but two games in the past 12 seasons.

It’s not like Witten’s production has waned! He has obviously slowed a bit over the years, but his style of play as a physical pass receiver, who is an effective run blocker, has allowed him to stay on the field regardless of the down and formation. He is valuable inline but also a match-up problem in the slot and split out wide; and the Cowboys utilize all of his talents. Last season he started another 16 games, had over 70 receptions and 700 yards despite dealing with multiple subpar quarterbacks after losing Tony Romo to injury. He will be counted on once again this season to be that dangerous threat in the middle, and with a healthy Romo, he could see his numbers increase.

Behind Witten are two highly capable backups who are poised to take over for Witten when the time finally comes for him to call it a career. James Hanna is the first in line and established number two guy. The 26-year-old veteran from Oklahoma has been groomed under Witten for four seasons and is used in their two tight end packages. Hanna has good versatility, but obviously with Witten as the primary target, he has been relegated to a limited amount of targets. He still holds major value for the Cowboys and could see that value increase if they try to save Witten for a post-season run.

The other tight end is Gavin Escobar. He’s another Cowboys draft pick who they have high hopes for, but has been limited because of Witten’s sustained excellence. Escobar has a similar build to Witten and many believe that he may eventually be the heir to the position. For now, he helps give the Cowboys one of the most complete tight end corps in the NFL.

The last guy in the Cowboys tight end unit is Rico Gathers. He was a basketball player at Baylor this past season and the Cowboys took him with a sixth round pick. At 6’6” and 274 pounds, Gathers will immediately be the most physically imposing and gifted end on the team. Unfortunately, he will also be the most inexperienced tight end in the NFL. Gathers did not play football in high school or college so to think that he will be able to have an immediate impact, like some of the other basketball converts, might be a stretch.  But if he is truly committed to being an NFL tight end, then he could not be in a better place to develop. Look for this to be a redshirt season for him with valuable experience being gained during preseason and on the practice squad. 2017 might be a time for him to step into a contributing role but he will be intriguing to watch in training camp this season.

Questions? Comments?

Tweet: @geneclemons

Email: gclemons@footballgameplan.com

Gene Clemons TE Confidential: Chargers

Gene Clemons, FBGP Analyst
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The 6th in our Tight End Confidential series are the San Diego Chargers who boast an aging veteran still at the top of his game, and a young hopeful with a complete skill set.
At 36 years old with over 10,000 yards and 104 touchdowns in hand, Antonio Gates has already secured his induction into the Hall of Fame when he decides to call it career. However Gates, and more importantly his performance, could make one believe that the end is not in sight for this 13-year veteran. Gates has been the catalyst for basketball players transitioning from the hardwood, to the gridiron. Tight ends like Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas can thank Gates for paving the way. Don’t be fooled by his stats last season, as Gates only started four games, but still managed to haul in 56 receptions for 630 yards, and five touchdowns. If those numbers were over a full season, he would have been looking at another 1000-yard season.

While Gates production was great considering his availability, the availability is still a concern for San Diego. When Ladarius Green, the original heir apparent to Gates, left for Pittsburgh in free agency, it was important for the Chargers to replace him with another quality tight end. So they used a 2nd round pick in this season’s draft to take Arkansas Razorback tight end, Hunter Henry. Henry had a great career in Arkansas and played in a Pro-style system. He is a guy who is valuable as a blocker and as a pass catcher, and will serve as an immediate impact in that #2 role. Henry will be an upgrade over gates in the run game immediately, which will also facilitate his use in the pass game, especially as a play-action weapon.

The position the Chargers have put themselves in allows them to seamlessly transition from their veteran hall of famer, to the guy they hope will be the next great tight end in their organization. Henry will be assisted by Gates’ presence as it will lessen the expectations of fans for him, and he will be able to pick the brain of quarterback Phillip Rivers’ favorite target. Gates will be able to focus on his effectiveness in the pass game and allow Henry to do most of the heavy lifting in the run game. It could buy Gates another couple years in the league. By that time, the 21-year-old Henry, will only be 24 and ready to take over as the full time guy.

This season they will be leaned on to help propel the Chargers back to the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how much they use 2-tight end formations.

Questions? Comments?

Tweet: @geneclemons

Email: gclemons@footballgameplan.com

Gene Clemons TE Confidential: Eagles

Gene Clemons, FBGP Analyst
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The Philadelphia Eagles dynamic duo lands them at #7 in our Tight End Confidential series.

Philly has two tight ends that are perfect for any offense. Both Brent Celek and Zach Ertz are guys who can block well enough, and they are dangerous in the pass game. Most teams, including teams on this countdown, don’t have two true tight ends and that is what makes this duo special.

The 31-year-old Celek continues to get it done as he now enters his 3rd offense and 10th season as an Eagle. Although he may not be considered the #1 guy in Philly anymore, he could start for many teams in the league. Celek still possesses the catching ability that made him one of the best pass receivers from the tight end position from 2009 to 2011. The drafting of Ertz three seasons ago has helped to keep him healthier and prolong his career. Now, a healthy and mature Celek, has the opportunity to return to an offense that will continue to feature his talents.

Zach Ertz has become the go-to guy at tight end for the Eagles. Ertz has averaged 12 yards per reception in his three seasons with Philly. In his second season, he surpassed Celek as the #1 option at tight end. Ertz is essentially a bigger, faster Celek and that is probably why they work so well as a combo. It’s probably why he was able to move into the #1 spot so seamlessly. His long arms and explosion allow him to high point the ball and go over the top.

While the offense under former head coach Chip Kelly didn’t neglect the tight end in the pass game, it can be argued that the position wasn’t emphasized to maximize the abilities of Celek and Ertz. There may be a renewed emphasis on featuring the tight end in the offense with a new leadership in place. If they do, look for record numbers from this combo. Ertz has the opportunity to have 1000 yards receiving and double digit touchdowns. That’s something Celek has not achieved in his career. Anything less than 1600 yards and 15 touchdowns from this duo will be disappointing.

The optimism for the improved production from the tight ends comes from the arrival of new head football coach Doug Pederson, who is from the Andy Reid coaching tree. He spent the past three seasons as the offensive coordinator of the Kansas City Chiefs and they featured a dominant run game, conservative risk taking, and heavy tight end use. That should be welcomed in Philly as it hopefully gets back to what it looked like under former head coach Reid.

Questions? Comments?

Tweet: @geneclemons

Email: gclemons@footballgameplan.com

Gene Clemons TE Confidential: Lions

Gene Clemons, FBGP Analyst
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In this edition of tight end confidential, we take a look at arguably the most athletically gifted tight end group, the Detroit Lions as they check in at #9..

The Lions have two of the more physically imposing tight ends in football. It’s just a shame they don’t get them more involved in the offense. With a head coach like Jim Caldwell, who knows the value of a weapon at tight end from his days with Peyton Manning, you would think there would be more targets for the position. One could also argue that the reason those targets have been low is because the Lions have been force-feeding recently retired receiver Calvin Johnson.. But with Johnson now out of the equation, Brandon Pettigrew and Eric Ebron have a chance to be more prominent in the Lions offensive gameplan.

Pettigrew set a career high in touchdowns (5), receptions (83) and yards (777) in 2011; his third season in the NFL. But over the last four seasons he has seen those numbers drop precipitously. Last season he set career lows in receptions (7) and yards (67) but he also set a career low in another statistic, games played. He only laced them up right times last season. Over the previous two seasons he has battled injury and has only competed in 22 of a possible 36 regular season games. That is almost an entire season lost to injury. But there is no denying the talent when healthy, which he seems to be. He has the ability to stretch the field, work between the hashes, go over the top of defenders, and block for runners. He’s a three-down tight end.

Ebron is essentially a wide receiver playing tight end. As a receiver, he is definitely a threat and a defensive nightmare. His speed makes him an option to take the top off a defense, and his big frame allows him to work intermediately. He’s too fast for safeties and linebackers, and far too big for corners. The crazy part is that he’s going into his third season in the NFL and he is only 23 years old. If you put that into perspective, his teammate Pettigrew was 24 when he broke into the league. Last season, Ebron was fourth on the team in receiving behind Johnson, Golden Tate, and Theo Riddick. He still managed almost 50 receptions over 500 yards and 5 touchdowns. As he continues to grow as a blocker, it will only make him more valuable and allow him to see more time on the field.

Johnson’s 150 targets last season, and all the production that comes with it, will have to be absorbed elsewhere. And if the Lions want to put more wins on the books, these two guys should take a large portion of those. Pettigrew should get back to form and Ebron should continue to elevate as both their roles grow in the post-Megatron era. This will be a dangerous duo in 2016.

Questions? Comments?

Tweet: @geneclemons

Email: gclemons@footballgameplan.com

Gene Clemons TE Confidential: Ravens

Gene Clemons, FBGP Analyst
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Strength in numbers is the name of the game in Baltimore as our #8 tight end corps check in for our Tight End Confidential series.

The Baltimore Ravens signed 35-year-old Benjamin Watson this offseason. The 12-year vet had a resurgent season in 2015 after spending the previous two seasons as the backup to Jimmy Graham in New Orleans. When Graham was traded to Seattle in the offseason, that opened the door for Watson to take a starting role in the Saints passing offense. He responded with his best season ever; 74 receptions, 825 yards, and six touchdowns later, Watson was sought after on the free agent market and chose to go to another team that values the tight end position in the Baltimore Ravens. He will bring his veteran leadership to a tight end group that was very young last season.

The future is bright and relatively secure for the Ravens with the youth movement that was forced into action last season. In his second season, Crockett Gillmore was the third leading receiver despite being seventh in targets. He amassed 412 yards on 33 receptions while hauling in four touchdowns. His massive frame (6’6” 270 lbs) and blocking ability makes him a promising three-down tight end, and he’s only 24 years old.

The other youngster that’s making plays for the Ravens is their 2015 second round draft pick Maxx Williams. At only 22 years old, he will have the opportunity to become as good as he wants to be. He possess the talent to be a 1000-yard receiving tight end in the NFL. Williams is your prototype pass-receiving tight end in the mold of Dallas Clark. He still needs to get better as a blocker, but he will definitely be a factor in the passing game. With 32 receptions in only seven starts, it shows the promise of what he will be able to do in this offense going forward.

The wild card in the bunch is Ravens veteran Dennis Pitta. The 31 year old has not been a factor for Baltimore since 2012 due to major hip injuries, but he has been receiving rave reviews this offseason. If he is healthy, he could provide the Ravens with the deepest and most diverse corps in football. During Pitta’s last healthy season, he amassed 669 yards on 61 receptions and added seven touchdowns. It will be interesting to watch this battle in training camp as these four jockey for position. I think that competition will help to raise all of their levels.

Questions? Comments?

Tweet: @geneclemons

Email: gclemons@footballgameplan.com