Supplemental Draft to the Rescue
Emory Hunt, FBGP Analyst
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With talks of a potential abbreviated college football season, or a full season in the winter, it appears that the powers the be will have college football come hell or high water. But, with any scenario that’s tossed out there, especially with the uncertainty of Covid-19, there ends up being more questions than answers.
And for many potential 2021 NFL Draft prospects, the thought of not having a college football season, or an abbreviated season, or one that pushes up against the 2021 NFL Draft next spring, doesn’t sound like the best possible situation for them to be able to maximize their opportunities to increase their value as prospects.
In 1977, the NFL created a supplemental draft. It was meant for players whose eligibility had changed and hadn’t declared in time for the regular draft. In over 40 years, there have been a handful of impact players — the most notable in recent years being Josh Gordon. But it’s been pushed to the shadows, mainly; a quirk of the behind-the-scenes machinations that barely registers a blip between OTAs and training camp.
I don’t think it’s going to be pushed aside this year. Follow this logic with me.
Judging by the current timeline of events, I find it hard to envision a 2020 college football season happening. Spring Football has already been shuttered. Which means the ever-so-important winter and spring workouts have ceased. And with no clear date to return to campus, it’s safe to say that we won’t get productive summer workouts or fall camp done in time to realistically have a full season.
Professional ball differs from college ball in one major aspect: there are no classes. College football can’t continue until college classes continue. Professional ball has the luxury of moving a season to start whenever/wherever. One, because it’s professional and they have the financial resources. And, two, there’s a fixed number of teams. You’re talking 32 NFL teams vs. 850+ football-playing colleges from FBS-JUCO.
So with potentially no college football to be played this season, guys who are upcoming seniors or rising juniors and are legit pro prospects will be left without a season to play. They would essentially go a full year without playing football. And, more importantly, would go a full season without getting PAID to play football.
With that potentially being a serious conundrum for many potential prospects, the question then becomes: what could be a potential option?
Answer: The NFL Supplemental Draft
“So how does this thing work, Emory?”
Glad you asked.
The supplemental draft essentially runs like a silent auction, where teams have to bid the following year’s draft pick for the potential player. The draft works on a tier system, to level the playing field:
- Teams with six or fewer wins from the previous season are put in Tier 1.
- Teams that had six wins or more, but didn’t make the playoffs, are in Tier 2
- Tier 3 teams are the squads that made the playoffs.
- The order within each tier is done in a lottery-style system.
So just for example, if Team A was willing to part ways with next year’s first round pick for Player B, while Team B only offered up a second round pick, Team A would get the player. Because of that, many teams are reluctant to give up future draft picks for players, which is why you don’t see many players taken in the supplemental draft.
However, this year could potentially change that with the uncertainty surrounding the 2020 college football season. We could essentially see the NFL use the Supplemental Draft as a jump-start on the 2021 draft.
Having players who either considered coming out in April’s draft but ended up returning to school, plus players — like Clemson’s star QB Trevor Lawrence, —who would have more than likely played their final season of college football in 2020, eligible for the supplemental draft, could make this usually nondescript draft VERY interesting and exciting.
Because the Supplemental Draft happens in July, that gives NFL teams another two months to evaluate and study potential players for the draft.
There is one wrinkle — the NFL rule book uses language about a player’s eligibility having 
to change from the time they didn’t declare for the draft to the time of the Supplemental. If they wanted to be strict about this, the NFL could argue that none of these players’ eligibility changed, assuming the schools just view this as a lost season and hit reset next fall as if nobody advanced a year. Hopefully this doesn’t happen and the players are allowed to make this decision for themselves.
“But what about the upcoming college seniors who aren’t highly thought of yet? How do they factor in?”
Another great question, Emory, I’m glad you asked that!
Because the NFL (Now, I don’t know all of the legalities involving the NFLPA and how that would factor into this) can essentially adjust the rules of how they operate at any time, they could essentially run the supplemental draft like a second, full seven-round draft. It would almost be like draft ‘futures’, sort of like you see in baseball (I reached out to the NFLPA for some help with this question, but they declined to reply by the time this article ran).
As you know, I’ve personally scouted thousands of players. So while all eyes this week are on the actual NFL Draft, I like to be a step ahead, and have listed some of the more interesting names you could see in the July Supplemental, if things play out the way they will. I went ahead and dropped a round next to each player, so you have a feel of the Supplemental pick they might commend. Worst case?
This is an early look at some of the top 2021 prospects (NOT IN ANY ORDER. SO DON’T TRIP).
Quarterbacks
1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
2. Justin Fields, Ohio State
3. Jamie Newman, Georgia
4. Brock Purdy, Iowa State
5. D’Eriq King, Miami
Running Backs
1. Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State
2. Kylin Hill, Mississippi State
3. Travis Etienne, Clemson
4. Najee Harris, Alabama
5. Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana
6. Josh Johnson, UL-Monroe
Wide Receivers
1. Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
2. Rondale Moore, Purdue
3. Devonta Smith, Alabama
4. Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State
5. Justyn Ross, Clemson
6. Tamorrion Terry, Florida State
7 Jamarr Chase, LSU
8. Marquez Stevenson, Houston
Tight End
1. Pat Freiermuth, Penn State
2. Brevin Jordan, Miami
Offensive Linemen
1. OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
2. OT Walker Little, Stanford
3. OT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama
4. OT Jackson Carman, Clemson
5. OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas
6. OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame
7. OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan
8. OT Abraham Lucas, Washington State
9. OC Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma
10. OG Trey Smith, Tennessee
11. OG Wyatt Davis, Ohio State
Defensive Linemen
1. DE Quincy Roche, Miami
2. DT Marvin Wilson, Florida State
3. DE Carlos Basham, Wake Forest
4. DT Osa Odighizuwa, UCLA
5. DE Xavier Thomas, Clemson
Linebackers
1. Jabril Cox, LSU
2. Dylan Moses, Alabama
3. Garret Wallow, TCU
4. Micah Parsons, Penn State
Defensive Backs
1. CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
2. S Trevon Moehrig-Woodard, TCU
3. CB Elijah Molden, Washington
4. CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford
5. S Richard LeCounte III, Georgia
6. S Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State
7. CB Eric Stokes, Georgia
8. S Sean Wade, Ohio State
9. S Caden Sterns, Texas
If you think ratings will be a smash hit for the NFL Draft, you can imagine the ratings for a televised Supplemental Draft.
Hopefully, we’re able to get the world back in order to have normalcy within our fall sports. But, this particular contingency plan would make things very interesting if it were to occur.
Week after week, the XFL was dominating the TV ratings on Saturdays and Sundays, and the attendance at the games met or exceeded expectations. Despite the naysayers, who were quick to remind everyone that the ratings were decreasing slightly every week, they still averaged well over one million viewers every game. Attendance in some cities seemed to hit their peak, but other cities like St. Louis, were on the verge of putting 45 thousand fans in the Dome. Days leading up to games, through days after games, the XFL was trending on Twitter and this was without the help from the Adam Schefter’s and Ian Rapoport’s of the world. A collection of up and coming and eager reporters, like me, were the ones getting the stories, visiting team practices, interviewing players and coaches, as well as hosting cable TV shows and Podcasts. If you followed the XFL at all this year, then you are more than familiar with the names like Konnor Fulk, Bailey Carlin, Mike Mitchell, Jai Stokes, Danny Jones, Allison Koehler among MANY others. Did you know these names before week 1? These names, and the many others, were part of the reason why the XFL community as a whole flourished the way it did. 
contract or CBA problems; they have the opposite of an antiquated problem, as they’ve innovated many new ideas on the field; and the parity in the league through five weeks was about as close at it could be. There wasn’t any background noise, political statements or agendas being pushed across on fans. Every Saturday and Sunday for five weeks, all we got was eight teams playing for the love of football. The XFL took out the BS and listened to the fans, and laid out a product that not only they wanted to see, but what the players wanted to see too. When the Coronavirus struck the US and the XFL was forced to close its doors on the season, you could see and feel the utter disappointment at all levels. The fans felt devastated, but, thankful. The up and coming media personalities are sick as we consumed the XFL like no other, but, were thankful. And no one was hurting more than the players as not only was their first, second and final chance at playing football came to an unwarranted pause, but, were thankful. 
The gameplay all together has been surprisingly good to some, even the critics, but for some reason those same skeptics seem to be exceptionally critical of the quarterbacks across the league. Understandably, quarterbacks are scrutinized more than any other position in all of sports. It’s arguably the most important, and most difficult position to play. There is a reason, in terms of market value, why Quarterbacks are typically paid in a category all by themselves. No other sport has a position whose market value is greater than any other position on the field. So sure, it comes with the territory that all the extra eyes and criticisms are on them; But what the critics are forgetting, that unlike
Let’s start with the guys who have played in real NFL games, who are starters in the XFL: Matt McGloin, Landry Jones, and Josh Johnson. McGloin took his last professional snap in 2016, where he appeared in 3 games and started one for the Raiders. In 2017, Landry Jones also played in three games with Steelers, but also only started one. In 2018 Josh Johnson played in four total games and started the final three for the Washington Redskins that season. So, the last time these quarterbacks took professional snaps in the NFL were over three, two and one year ago, respectively. Not one was ever seen as “The Guy” for their teams.
teams in years. Again, these are the “experienced” guys. Now, imagine the Dragons and Vipers who so far this season have trotted out Brandon Silvers, BJ Daniels, Taylor Cornelius and Quinton Flowers; players that are even farther in development than those listed above. Unfortunately for the XFL, these four, on top of a putrid performance from McGloin and the Guardians, were the highlight of Saturday. Now, does this mean that most of these quarterbacks are not capable of leading their teams this season? Absolutely not. Let’s try to remember that THIS IS FOOTBALL. It is early and just like in every league on every level, the offenses typically start slower than the defenses.
They have been together with their teams for maybe two months before the season, in a brand-new system, with brand new coaches, in a brand-new league, with new rules; major obstacles, right?? Factor in the fact, as mentioned earlier, that these guys are not established guys, but players who are still developing. Throw in a couple of curveballs like camp injuries to players like Landry Jones and Josh Johnson, that limits their reps in the short offseason; what would you expect the results to be??
Over the past two seasons, Florida A&M’s 12 conference wins is on par with both A&T and Alcorn. This year, they have widely been recognized as the best D1 HBCU team in the country, but they still are not in Atlanta. That is because they self-imposed a ban for infractions that occurred at the university before most of the athletes on the team was even there. As a result, their 7-1 conference record this season does not yield a recognized championship. Instead they have to watch that title go to the Aggies between the Aggies. The Rattlers also have to watch their Celebration Bowl birth be claimed by a team they defeated 34-31 in overtime.
Yes, while A&T has represented the MEAC in four of the five Celebration Bowls, it could have easily been a different team.
easy for the Braves. Fellow SWAC frontrunner Grambling, has been the conference representative twice. Last season, the Braves barely squeezed by a Southern team that was hungry to make their first Celebration Bowl appearance.
The MEAC is a grinder. There are legitimately 4-5 teams that can win the conference every season. FAMU has no intentions of going backwards with Head Coach Willie Simmons leading the way. South Carolina State, with legendary Head Coach Buddy Pough, was just knocking on the door this season. And Head Coach Terry Sims at Bethune-Cookman is always hovering, proving to be a constant nuisance to both A&T and Florida A&M. North Carolina Central knows what it takes to get there, having played in the game 3 years ago and 2nd year Head Coach Trei Oliver had an impressive 1st season at his alma mater. Norfolk State Head Coach Latrell Scott has quietly developed a solid program, and his Spartans took both FAMU & South Carolina State to the brink this season. Also, don’t sleep on the Morgan State Bears, who are a sleeping giant in the conference, with Tyrone Wheatley at the helm, building a bully in Baltimore; And Delaware State is in good hands under Head Coach Rod Milstead, who has done fantastic work on the recruiting front for the Hornets.
Dawson Odums, and Prairie View A&M, with Head Coach Eric Dooley, joining Broderick Fobbs and Grambling as legitimate contenders in the West Division, as well as Alabama A&M, who has the Top QB in the SWAC, Aqeel Glass, who is also an NFL Prospect, returning next season. Quietly, Jackson State, along with Alabama State, continues to get better in the East Division and played with a lot of youthful talent in 2019, will make getting to Atlanta in 2020 a daunting task for Alcorn St.
You can pencil in Clemson and Oklahoma unless something crazy happens. Clemson’s sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence is experiencing a slump to begin the season, and it hasn’t phased the Tigers. In fact, losing a bevy of defensive talent to the NFL doesn’t seem to phase them either. They just keep rolling along. Unless NC State or Wake Forest are able to catch them slipping or looking forward to their rivalry game with South Carolina, they will not be challenged for a seat at the proverbial playoff table.
With respect to undefeated Penn State and Iowa, this conference is a two-horse race. Both the Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes control their own destiny, but that destiny includes a date with Ohio State for Penn State and a matchup with Wisconsin for Iowa. Neither team seems likely to emerge victorious.
We get it, the SEC is good, again! But if the scenarios I laid out above play out, there is no room for two SEC teams this season. So, despite having so many undefeated teams in the conference, one loss spells doom unless everyone loses. LSU and Alabama seem to have what it takes to represent the conference when the smoke clears.